Mamata has edge in West Bengal: Opinion poll

Headlines Today Bureau  | New Delhi, March 31, 2011 | Updated 19:42 IST

'We don't want revenge. We want change.' This is Trinamool Congress chiefMamata Banerjee's anthem for the most decisive encounter of her life. Has it struck a chord with the people? Or will the longest serving government in the country survive the battle for West Bengal? A Headlines Today-ORG opinion pollhas come out with the result showing, who will emerge victorious: Mamata or Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. A poll that projects the number of seats the two arch-rivals will win, the most definitive sign of which way the wind is blowing. 

When asked if they would prefer another term for the Left Front or is it time for a change of government, 38% voters said they preferred another term for the Left, but 53% said they favour change. That confirms the reading of most poll pundits.

When asked whom they favour as the state's next chief minister, Mamata Banerjee was a clear favourite with the people of Bengal. The railways minister polled 49% of the votes to Buddhadeb's 20. Six per cent said they would rather have Pranab Mukherjee as CM.

It follows that people are deeply disappointed with Buddhadeb's performance as CM, with 27% rating his performance as poor. Another 27% believe it is average. And 13% have judged it very poor. Twenty-two per cent of the voters though have rated Buddha rule as good.

What will come as a rude shock also for the chief minister is the fact that between him and Jyoti Basu, 56% prefer Basu over Buddhadeb. Buddhadeb polls a dismal 13 % of the votes.

Even as Buddha's ratings collapse, Mamata's are rising. Asked to rate her performance as railway minister, an overwhelming 74% of voters said it is good. Only 18% believe it is bad.

When asked how good or bad a chief minister Mamata will prove to be, 25% said she will be very good, 29% said she will be good. Nineteen per cent though are willing to bet she will be bad.

Asked whether Trinamool's Singur/Nandigram agitations were pro or anti-people, 54% said it was pro-people. Thirty-four said it was anti-people.

Despite what happened to the Nano, 62% of people believe industries will not flee Bengal in a Mamata regime. Twenty-four say they will.

In fact, 52% believe that Kolkata has fallen behind other metros because of Left's policies.

The Trinamool's alleged connection with Naxalites isn't a big problem for the voting public. Twenty-nine per cent believe it will work in favour of the party. Twenty-seven per cent say it will work against the party, while forty-four per cent decided not to hazard a guess on the matter.

Finally here's a look at what Headlines Today-ORG are projecting for the 2011 elections to West Bengal.

In 2011, the ORG projects the Left will get 43% of the vote share, 44% for Trinamool and allies and 12% for others. ORG projects Trinamool and allies will get 182 seats, the Left will get 101 seats, and others 11.

ORG have been careful to qualify their prediction of a Mamata Banerjee victory by noting that the difference in vote share between the two alliances is not as large as is the public impression. What is working for Mamata is a palpable, consuming desire: after three decades of the Left, the voter wants change.